Browsing by Author "Rauser, Daniel Marco"
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- Navigating uncertainty : quantifying residual load and enhancing portfolio resilience for EDP PortugalPublication . Rauser, Daniel Marco; Nogueira, MiguelDecarbonizing the energy sector is crucial to achieve climate goals set by international agreements. Energias de Portugal (EDP), which relies heavily on renewable energy, may face significant challenges due to increased potential variability and uncertainty in energy generation caused by climate change. These changes significantly influence the residual load, which is formally defined as the difference between total electricity demand and renewable energy supply. The thesis employs an innovative methodology that uses climate data with advanced predictive analytics to first assess EDP9s current residual load and later estimate future residual loads and its implications until 2045. It is novel in integrating different data, including company-specific data, high resolution climate data amongst others, to provide climate scenario risk assessments. Simulations are conducted to explore strategic mitigation paths such as energy storage expansion, optimizing investments, or bitcoin mining for excess energy utilization. The results show increased residual load in the future, mainly influenced by intensified climate extremes, including anticipated droughts that significantly affect hydropower production, which makes up 75% of EDP9s generation portfolio in severe climate scenarios. The originality of the study is in translating climate risks into interpretable financial terms for EDP and providing concrete recommendations for strategic adaptation especially concerning portfolio expansions. While EDP's current investments, including large-scale batteries and diversified renewable assets, are increasing resilience, this research quantifies further diversification. Ultimately, this thesis highlights the need for proactive, data-driven planning to ensure long term financial stability and operational reliability of renewable-centric energy providers in a climate-uncertain future.