Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/7412
Título: Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials
Autor: Poças, Maria F.
Oliveira, Jorge C.
Brandsch, Rainer
Hogg, Timothy
Palavras-chave: Exposure assessment
Food packaging
Migration
Probabilistic modeling
Data: 2010
Editora: Wiley Blackwell
Citação: POÇAS, Maria F... [et al.] - Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials. Risk Analysis. ISSN 0272-4332. Vol. 30, n.º 7 (2010), p. 1052-1061
Resumo: The use of probabilistic approaches in exposure assessments of contaminants migrating from food packages is of increasing interest but the lack of concentration or migration data is often referred as a limitation. Data accounting for the variability and uncertainty that can be expected in migration, for example, due to heterogeneity in the packaging system, variation of the temperature along the distribution chain, and different time of consumption of each individual package, are required for probabilistic analysis. The objective of this work was to characterize quantitatively the uncertainty and variability in estimates of migration. AMonte Carlo simulation was applied to a typical solution of the Fick’s law with given variability in the input parameters. The analysis was performed based on experimental data of a model system (migration of Irgafos 168 from polyethylene into isooctane) and illustrates how important sources of variability and uncertainty can be identified in order to refine analyses. For long migration times and controlled conditions of temperature the affinity of the migrant to the food can be the major factor determining the variability in the migration values (more than 70% of variance). In situations where both the time of consumption and temperature can vary, these factors can be responsible, respectively, for more than 60% and 20% of the variance in the migration estimates. The approach presented can be used with databases from consumption surveys to yield a true probabilistic estimate of exposure.
Peer review: yes
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/7412
Versão do Editor: The definitive version is available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01394.x/abstract
Aparece nas colecções:CBQF - Artigos em revistas internacionais com Arbitragem / Papers in international journals with Peer-review

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