R - Dissertações de Mestrado / Master Dissertations
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- Do diversified portfolios effectively hedge inflation and volatility risks?Publication . Peixoto, Luís Carlos Lemos Mouta; Schliephake, EvaThis paper investigates the effectiveness of a set of assets and asset allocation strategies in hedging inflation risk, market volatility risk and their joint risk. Using monthly returns data between 1980 and 2024 for 15 different assets – including Stock Indexes, Bonds, Commodities, Real Estate Indexes, and currency pairs - I build naively or through optimization 18 portfolios, constrained to transaction costs and no short-selling. Inflation Rate is based on Consumer Price Index and estimates of volatility on the monthly returns of the MSCI World Index. The methodology extends the Modern Portfolio Theory by introducing a three-dimensional efficient surface that incorporates expected return, and the sensitivities to inflation and volatility, and then comparing it with traditional allocation strategies. Hedging effectiveness is assessed through linear regressions using models with expected and unexpected components of inflation and volatility, lagged realized values of the two variables, and conditional volatility from a GARCH (1,1) model. Further robustness tests are made by including standard factor models such as FF3, Carhart and FF5. The study is validated by the orthogonality and the ambiguous Granger-causality of the two main sources of risk studied in this paper. I find that none of the assets or portfolios is an effective hedge of inflation and its components. I also find that individual assets are unable to perfectly hedge volatility and just a few portfolios can do so, but none does so in a consistent statistically significant manner.
- Buy now pay later in Portuguese retail : the factors that influence consumers' adoption of "Parcela Já com UNICRE"Publication . Ortega, Maria Eduarda de Andrade; Xavier, RuteThis thesis examines the factors influencing the adoption of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services among Portuguese consumers, focusing on the case of Parcela Já com UNICRE. Despite the rapid growth of BNPL across Europe, its use in Portugal remains limited. Through a mixed-method approach, including a benchmarking analysis, an online survey, and a mystery client study in physical retail locations, this study identified key barriers to adoption, such as a lack of clear information, limited understanding of service conditions, and insufficient in-store visibility. Nevertheless, UNICRE's brand reputation emerged as a key trust factor, representing a strategic opportunity for differentiation. The cluster analysis revealed three distinct consumer profiles with varying familiarity, trust, and experience with BNPL. Based on the findings, this thesis recommends enhancing financial education and communication, improving visibility at points of sale, expanding eligibility criteria, and implementing customer loyalty mechanisms. The study contributes to a better understanding of the BNPL market in Portugal. It provides practical recommendations to support the strategic development of Parcela Já com UNICRE in a growing and competitive sector.
- The future of professional development : adoption of AI-powered career platformsPublication . Cassisi, Christian; Xavier, RuteAs artificial intelligence enters increasingly personal aspects of life, this thesis explores its role in career development - specifically through AI-powered career coaching platforms. While traditional coaching methods are often costly, generic, or inaccessible, AI-based tools promise scalable, personalized guidance. However, adoption remains limited, particularly in trust-sensitive domains like career planning. To investigate the factors that drive adoption and sustained engagement, this study applies an integrated framework combining the Technology Acceptance Model and the Diffusion of Innovation theory. A survey of 130 participants from German-speaking countries measured user traits, technology perceptions, and feature preferences. Both quantitative (regression analysis) and qualitative (thematic coding) methods were used. The results show that perceived usefulness, trust in data handling, and explainable recommendations are the most influential predictors of adoption. Psychological readiness and familiarity with AI significantly outweigh demographic traits in shaping openness. Users primarily value operational features such as CV optimization and cover letter writing, while more strategic services are secondary. These findings suggest that AI-career tools should focus on delivering early value, ensuring transparent data practices, and building user trust through explainability. The study offers practical guidance for platform providers and contributes new insights to technology acceptance research in private, emotionally complex domains.
- The art of Italian craftsmanship : Campari to acquire LuxardoPublication . Boi, Leonardo; Assunção, António Borges deThis dissertation analyses the proposed acquisition of Privilegiata Fabbrica Maraschino “Excelsior” Girolamo Luxardo S.p.A. by Davide Campari-Milano N.V on a cash-free, debt-free basis. Luxardo, one of the oldest and still operating family-owned businesses producing liqueurs and distillates, represents a perfect fit for Campari’s Regional Priorities portfolio, which includes brands with limited scale but outstanding potential for expansion in the domestic market and abroad. Furthermore, the acquisition aligns with Campari’s premiumization pathway and its external growth strategy focused particularly on spirits, seeking local and identity specialty brands in markets where it has direct distribution. This study examines the M&A process of the proposed transaction from a holistic perspective, starting with the industry and market analysis, the identification of the ideal target, and the strategic rationale supporting the acquisition. It then includes a preliminary valuation through selected intrinsic and relative methodologies, and the examination of the preferred form of consideration, concluding with the assessment of shareholder value creation. This analysis highlights the potential value creation from the proposed transaction, primarily driven by revenue synergies and Campari’s proven A&P and distribution capabilities. The preliminary purchase price is set at €177.5 million, subject to confirmation following an extensive due diligence, implying a 39.2% premium to Luxardo’s fair value based on intrinsic valuation. The preferred payment structure includes a mix of stock and cash with a floating collar structure, along with a deferred portion of the consideration structured through an earn-out component.
- The role of CFO influence in mitigating financial distress : evidence from U.S. public firmsPublication . Greis, Tim; Pape, UlrichThis study examines whether CFO influence reduces the likelihood of corporate financial distress, contributing to the literature on Upper Echelons Theory. While CFOs are increasingly recognized as strategic actors in corporate finance, their role in financial distress contexts remains underexplored. Building on a CFO Influence Index inspired by Ferris and Sainani (2021), this thesis uses both additive and PCA-based metrics to quantify influence across a panel of large U.S.-listed firms between 2019 and 2024. Financial distress is measured using both the original and adjusted Altman Z-Score. While no consistent association is found across the entire sample, CFOs in the top 80th percentile of influence are significantly less likely to be linked with distress, especially under adjusted specifications. These findings extend the scope of Upper Echelons Theory to adverse financial environments and emphasize the strategic relevance of CFOs in enhancing firm resilience.
- The effects of logo change : how logo preference and brand reputation shape purchase intention : a case of KIAPublication . Jabłońska, Barbara Maria; Romeiro, PauloThis study explores the impact of logo preference on purchase intention in the automotive sector, using KIA’s logo redesign as a case study. It examines whether brand usage and brand reputation moderate this relationship, shedding light on how consumers react to visual identity changes in well-established brands. A mixed-methods approach was applied, combining qualitative interviews with a quantitative survey (N = 93). The survey assessed logo preference, purchase intention, brand usage, and brand reputation. Regression analysis found no direct effect of logo preference on purchase intention, and brand usage did not significantly moderate this relationship. However, an alternative ANOVA test revealed that brand usage does play a moderating role, suggesting that consumers' previous experience with KIA influences how they perceive and respond to the logo change. Notably, KIA users exhibited lower purchase intention than non-users, indicating that existing customers may be more critical of the logo changes. Additionally, brand reputation emerged as the strongest predictor of purchase intention, reinforcing its crucial role in consumer decision-making. These findings suggest that while a logo change can shape brand perception, its effect on purchase behavior is limited. Instead, consumer trust and prior experiences with the brand significantly impact their willingness to buy. For marketers, this highlights the need to prioritize reputation management and customer satisfaction over purely aesthetic changes. Future research should replicate this study with a larger sample to better understand the nuanced effects of brand usage and further validate the moderating role observed in ANOVA analysis.
- Beyond function : how symbolic brand image influences SME purchase decisions in fintech : a study in the context of the Australian payments industryPublication . Seidel, Mariana Rueda; Romeiro, PauloThis thesis explores how brand positioning strategies shape brand image and influence purchase intention among small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in Australia’s payments industry. Grounded in branding, consumer behavior, and attitude formation theory, it compares three strategies: price-quality, local-based, and attribute-based positioning. Using a between-subjects experimental design, participants were shown fictional advertisements, each reflecting one of the positioning approaches. They then evaluated the brand based on symbolic and functional image dimensions and indicated their purchase intention. Findings highlight that brand image plays a crucial mediating role between positioning and purchase intention. Among the strategies, local-based positioning generated the strongest effects, particularly via symbolic image traits. Symbolic brand image was more influential than functional image, emphasizing traits like approachability. Mediation analysis confirmed that the impact of brand positioning on purchase intention occurs primarily through brand image, rather than a direct effect. This study contributes to academic literature by offering empirical evidence on the psychological mechanisms behind value-based brand positioning in a B2B fintech context. It also provides actionable insights for payment brands: to connect with SMEs, emphasizing symbolic meaning and local relevance may be more effective than focusing solely on functional or price-based messaging.
- Equity valuation of Allgeier SEPublication . Sträußl, Alexander Jonathan; Martins, José TudelaThis thesis delivers a comprehensive commercial, financial, and valuation assessment of Allgeier SE, a German IT Services provider. The core analysis focuses on valuing Allgeier through two intrinsic valuation techniques, namely the traditional DCF method and the APV approach, complemented by a relative valuation, performed as of April 30, 2025. The valuation yields a blended final target share price of EUR 24.73, which indicates a 21.83% premium over Allgeier’s share price on April 30, 2025. The valuation assumes Allgeier leverages its established position in the German IT Services market, benefitting from the ongoing digitalization trend and a strategic shift to higher-margin services. The ability to attract IT talent and cost control in a competitive landscape remain crucial for Allgeier’s long-term success. The DACH IT Services market forecast supports future revenue growth, as recovery from recent macroeconomic headwinds and delayed IT investments is anticipated. The analysis is compared with Berenberg’s equity report, which proposes a slightly higher target price of EUR 22.00 based on a DCF model with perpetuity growth. The deviation in the perpetuity growth approaches reflects more conservative assumptions in this dissertation, resulting in a marginally lower valuation, yet still endorsing the BUY recommendation. In conclusion, this analysis suggests that the market currently undervalues Allgeier’s stock due to the multiple ongoing headwinds. However, the company’s positive long-term outlook highlights significant upward potential for investors.
- Has their time come? : cryptocurrencies as assets on corporate balance sheetsPublication . Binder, Marc Philipp; Rajsingh, PeterThis study investigates the strategic drivers and operational challenges of adopting cryptocurrencies as corporate assets. While Bitcoin and other digital assets have historically been associated with speculative investment, a growing number of corporations are exploring their utility as part of broader treasury strategies. Using a mixed-method design, this research integrates twelve expert interviews with senior finance professionals and a structured analysis of eight publicly traded firms holding digital assets. The findings reveal four primary adoption motivations: portfolio diversification, inflation hedging, innovation signaling, and high-growth potential. However, adoption is constrained by five core challenges: regulatory uncertainty, accounting complexity, custody and security risks, exposure limitations, and extreme volatility. Quantitative analysis suggests that neither firm size nor industry alone predicts the level of crypto adoption; rather, proportional exposure is shaped by a combination of treasury scale and strategic intent. These insights are contextualized through Resource-Based Theory, Dynamic Capabilities, and Signaling Theory. The study concludes that cryptocurrencies, while not yet mainstream treasury instruments, are emerging as strategic tools for financial flexibility and competitive differentiation. This thesis offers practical guidance for treasurers, regulators, and investors navigating the evolving intersection of digital assets and corporate finance.
- External action, internal gains : how EIB investments outside the EU affect the EU's markets and economyPublication . Mendes, Rita Santos; Soares, CarlaAs the European Union increasingly positions itself as a global actor through development finance, the European Investment Bank’s external role has expanded. This shift raises questions about whether this strategy positively impacts the Union and how it aligns with its mission of supporting the internal market’s development. The analysis combines event studies – examining financial market reactions of European stocks and European Investment Bank bonds – with a Propensity Score Matching staggered Difference-in-Differences approach that evaluates trade and investment flow changes between the Union and the non-European Union countries supported by the bank. The results suggest that European firms responded positively, whereas the bank’s bond investors exhibited some caution, possibly reflecting concerns over the increased risk associated with a global mandate. On the macroeconomic side, there are indications of positive trends in exports and outward foreign direct investment flows to the European Union, as well as imports from the Union. However, the lack of statistical significance limits the confirmation of measurable effects. These findings challenge the idea that the bank might support Aid for Trade outcomes. This research contributes to the literature on development finance, European Union foreign policy and the effects in donor regions. Overall, this study provides valuable insight into how the European Union reacts to changes in the European Investment Bank's external strategy and suggests that the bank's external operations may serve geopolitical objectives more than direct economic gains to the European Union.